DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

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WOUS40 KWNS 180946
PWOSPC
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-181745-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FROM
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS NORTH TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF ILLINOIS
INDIANA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN OHIO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH INTO ONTARIO EARLY FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE WILL BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT AFFECTED PARTS
OF THE PLAINS AND OZARKS YESTERDAY...AND WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN THE DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW ENTERING WESTERN IOWA.

THE IOWA LOW WILL DRAW A BROAD CURRENT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.

AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS...THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IOWA LOW.

WITH JET STREAM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
SERVE AS FUEL...THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. WITH A
BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THESE ROTATING STORMS
COULD BECOME LONG-LIVED AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AND
POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY WILL EXIST IN THE
MIDWEST...A MORE LIMITED POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXTEND SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST AND EAST TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..STEPHEN CORFIDI/STORM PREDICTION CENTER.. 10/18/2007

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