DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020510
SWODY2
SPC AC 020508

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG BELT OF CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES
..WILL CURVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
ADVANCE OF THE LEADING EMBEDDED IMPULSE/JET STREAK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THEREAFTER...IN THE WAKE OF THE LATTER FEATURE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE UPSTREAM POLAR TROUGH GRADUALLY BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...STRONGER FLOW WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF ANY MOIST...POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIR SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AND
..THIS WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

..TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
A LINGERING BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION MAY EXTEND ALONG A REMNANT
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
BY THE MIDDAY HOURS...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN A WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

..FLORIDA...
OTHERWISE...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD PROBABLY WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHERE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST IN THE WAKE OF
SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
..WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA
BREEZES. IN A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THIS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST PENINSULA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH STRONGER WIND FIELDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF THE
PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CLOSE TO
SATURATION...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEMS LOW AT THE PRESENT
TIME.

.KERR.. 10/02/2007

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