SWODY2
SPC AC 070537
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING UPPER TROUGH INTO
MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO EJECT NEWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MN OR WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWWD THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE EWD AND SEWD
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER EAST A QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EXTEND FROM NW-SE OVER THE NERN STATES.
..UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...
UPPER 60S LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL CHARACTERIZE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED AREAS OF CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE IN THIS REGION TO AOB 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING IN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DPVA IN
VICINITY OF FRONT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY SOME
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALLOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO WARM...AND STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP
EWD. A SWLY 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST EAST OF SURFACE LOW
OVER PARTS OF WI...SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY. THE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND JUST WEST
OF SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 35 TO 45 KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..NY...
MODERATELY STRONG NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF
NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF NY. WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND THEN SEWD INTO THE NERN STATES
MAY AUGMENT LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ADVANCE
RAPIDLY SEWD. WEAK 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
SUFFICIENTLY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY ADVANCE SEWD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
.DIAL.. 10/07/2007
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