SWODY2
SPC AC 221715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CENTRAL GULF COAST...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN
PLAINS DAY1 WILL MEANDER INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING. THIS SLOW EWD DRIFT WILL NOT PROVE TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MOIST
ADIABATIC...WITH ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. IN THE ABSENCE OF
MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIMITED. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DO WARRANT AT
LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS
A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
.DARROW.. 10/22/2007
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