SWODY2
SPC AC 250554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2007
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW REFORMING NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW ACROSS CANADA...WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA AND BEGIN
TO PHASE WITH THE EJECTING GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY SYSTEM INTO
SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND THE PLAINS WHILE UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER
SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...AND OFF THE EAST COAST.
..SOUTHEAST COAST/MID ATLANTIC...
QUASI-STATIONARY ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO FORM
BETWEEN EJECTING MIDWEST CYCLONE AND BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC. THIS ZONE OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE/MASS FLUX WILL LIKELY
TAKE THE FORM OF A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NWD FROM FL AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO THE ERN CAROLINAS. WEAK MESOSCALE WAVES
MAY TRACK NWD/INLAND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS EWD.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INLAND DESTABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY
BE INHIBITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO EXPAND INLAND AND NWD FROM IMMEDIATE SC COAST
AND ERN NC TO VA TIDEWATER FROM MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AND MOIST AIR MASS/LOW LFC...MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO
LIMITED/UNCERTAIN FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY BUT
FORECAST TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS.
..OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
STRONG FORCING/LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN APEX OF THETA-E/WARM
CONVEYOR FROM APPALACHIANS/UPPER OH VALLEY TO ERN GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BUT MAY PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS WITH HAIL GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING AND SHEAR FORECAST. ANY SEVERE STORM/HAIL HAZARD SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED.
.CARBIN.. 10/25/2007
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