SWODY2
SPC AC 291704
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2007
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SOUTH FL...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE CURVING NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC
AS IT ENCOUNTERS SRN FRINGE OF DEEPER WLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH CENTER
OF CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY EXIST WITHIN
OTHERWISE WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ROTATION...AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
..ORE/NRN CA TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
SUSTAINED LIFT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SRN ID AROUND 21Z SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER
OF 300 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 60F. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND
SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
.DARROW.. 10/29/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment