SWODY3
SPC AC 100719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TX PORTION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE SWRN U.S. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE
PLAINS.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH KS...
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN LIMITED
OWING TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF. HOWEVER...PARTIALLY MODIFIED CP AIR
WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
PARTS OF WRN TX INTO WRN OK AND KS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER MIXING ALONG WRN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM ERN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN
OK...WITH A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. PRESENCE OF UPPER
RIDGE SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL DEVELOP NWD OVERNIGHT FROM NRN OK
INTO PARTS OF KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND CONTRIBUTES TO
NWD DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT.
.DIAL.. 10/10/2007
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