DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100827
SWOD48
SPC AC 100827

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND HAVE DEMONSTRATED RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD INTO THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE DAY 4 (SATURDAY) AND INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS DAY 5 (SUNDAY). MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY STILL NOT BE
OPTIMAL DAY 4 GIVEN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND ELEVATED STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ON DAY 5 AS LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SELY OVER THE WRN GULF AND AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.

.DIAL.. 10/10/2007

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