SWOD48
SPC AC 230805
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED BY WESTERLIES AND DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE
TRANSLATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH DAYS 5-6. SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN FAILS TO
CAPTURE THE POTENTIAL AMPLITUDE OF THIS IMPULSE DUE TO LARGE SPREAD
IN MEMBERS. HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
SCENARIO AMONG LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NEWD
FROM THE OH VALLEY ON DAY 5...LIFT AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG TSTMS. HOWEVER...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL COEXIST WITH THE
STRONGER FORCING. STRONGER INSTABILITY AND GREATER MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE/PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ESPECIALLY FL
THROUGH DAY 7. THIS COULD AID STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG TRAILING
FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO FL AND THEN STALL THROUGH DAYS
6-7. UNLIKE FARTHER NORTH...SHEAR AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ACROSS THIS AREA AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
.CARBIN.. 10/23/2007
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