SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170612
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-170745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS
REGION...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...MUCH OF OK
PANHANDLE...PORTIONS NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 705...
VALID 170612Z - 170745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 705
CONTINUES.
SVR TSTMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCH
DIAMETER OVER SRN PORTIONS WW DURING PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL WW
ISSUANCE -- WHICH MAY INCLUDE REPLACEMENT OR UPGRADE -- IS BEING
CONSIDERED AS WELL...FOR AREAS SWD PAST LBB AND EWD INTO WRN OK.
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS
ARE ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR SFC...DESPITE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER AROUND
1 KM AGL AND DESPITE PRESENCE OF 50-75 J/KG SBCINH. TYPICAL
DIABATIC COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE OFFSET BY
SFC WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION ENOUGH THAT LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THETAE
WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS EVEN SLGT INCREASE FROM SRN TX PANHANDLE SWD
ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...GIVEN INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED AND VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT LLJ OBSERVED
IN VWP DATA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER AND S OF
EXISTING WW...ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM SERN CO
LOW SSWWD ACROSS DHT AREA...20 E CVS...40 WNW INK. DRYLINE SHOULD
RETREAT WWD SLIGHTLY INTO MORE OF NM BEFORE BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY.
FARTHER N -- NEW SVR TSTM WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS
OK PANHANDLE...SRN KS...AND PERHAPS NWRN OK N AND NE OF WW 705...FOR
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL FROM ELEVATED SVR TSTMS. POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS
ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CIMARRON COUNTY OK...AND CONVECTION
SHOULD EXPAND/SPREAD NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PREDAWN HOURS. AIR MASS
FCST TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED ABOVE SFC...WITH MUCAPES REACHING 500-1000
J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO 35-45 KT RANGE WILL
SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL.
.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...
33160279 35400197 36610226 37070211 38360125 38509923
38349875 37579837 35619905 33210122 32720275
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