SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171436
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-171630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX...LA...SRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171436Z - 171630Z
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND
A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS ADVECTING NWD OUT
OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F.
A WEAK MESO LOW WAS NOTED AS WELL AND COULD BE SEEN ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY OVER SERN TX. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS LA WERE INDICATING
MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS/HODOGRAPHS WAS NOTED IN
THE 2-4 KM LAYER.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND SOME POCKETS OF
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS SE
TX/LA AND SPREADING NWD INTO SRN AR. TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE HIGH
INITIALLY...BUT WILL INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS THIS OCCURS...WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF
TORNADOES.
.JEWELL.. 10/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
29529435 32789431 33549371 33999310 34009219 33669133
32699129 30759174 29809213 29649259 29759331 29719376
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