SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230715
GAZ000-ALZ000-230845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL AL INTO WRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230715Z - 230845Z
ONGOING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /QLCS/ IS EXPECTED TO REACH
ERN EDGE OF WW 731 BY 08Z. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
AS OF 07Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED QLCS FROM 20 NE BHM TO
MGM TO PNS WITH A GENERAL SYSTEM MOTION OF 270/30 KT. SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE BEING OBSERVED WITHIN
THIS LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS OF
230/35-40 KT.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED W
OF TUP AS OF 07Z WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
INTERSECTION WITH QLCS NEAR MGM SEWD ACROSS SRN GA. INFLOW AIR MASS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S WHICH ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS
EVOLUTION OF QLCS THROUGH 12Z GIVEN THAT STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE N
ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
CURRENT RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS DO INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF MARGINAL
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DOES EXTEND EWD INTO FAR WRN GA...AND THIS
SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA GIVEN THE GEOMETRY OF
THE SURFACE PATTERN. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF RATHER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT QLCS AND ATTENDANT
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INDEED BE SUSTAINED E OF WW 731
INTO FAR WRN GA.
.MEAD.. 10/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...
34038538 34158507 33328456 32058463 31718484 31698520
31648562 31828563 31978533 33028554 33118519
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