SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231845
GAZ000-ALZ000-231945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231845Z - 231945Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE GREAT ATLANTA
METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME.
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LIFT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...IN A BROKEN LINE NOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER. THIS IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM
CLOSED LOW...WHICH IS STILL GENERALLY WEST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AND...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE
OF WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF GEORGIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...TO THE
SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING INFLECTION IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 500
J/KG OVER A BROADER AREA SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NEAR ATLANTA INTO THE COLUMBUS
AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS IN FRONTAL BAND MAY
INTENSIFY...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE BENEATH
DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE FRONT.
DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...INTENSIFICATION SHOULD REMAIN GRADUAL INTO
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. BUT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
ALTHOUGH CLOCKWISE TURNING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS IS ONLY
SLIGHT...HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE LARGE BENEATH 40-45 KT SOUTHERLY 850
MB FLOW. AND...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS WITHIN A
RELATIVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
.KERR.. 10/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...
32598546 32938528 33598527 34218534 34568529 34918472
34818359 34528320 33858279 32838371 32228403 31748467
31828527 32208543
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