DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050546
SWODY1
SPC AC 050543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..LWR OH AND TN VLYS...
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE SEWD REACHING THE GRTLKS AND OH VLYS
REGIONS BY MONDAY EVENING. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE GRTLKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD
ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS AND SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NWRN GULF BY 12Z
TUE.

LOW-LEVEL 30 KT WSWLY FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
THE MID-SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A RIBBON OF MODEST MOISTURE
NEWD INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. SFC DEW POINTS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 55-60 DEG F RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN KY
AND NWRN TN JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE
MID-AFTN HOURS. COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING...THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF 750-1000
J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO SPREAD SEWD...BY
MONDAY MID-AFTN.

FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE OH/MS RVR CONFLUENCE. LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY...
HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST AND GIVEN SUCH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR...UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.
SHOULD A STORM BECOME SUSTAINED...BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY
RESULT. ANTICIPATED BUNKERS MOTION AND FRONT MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT
UPDRAFTS COULD REMAIN ROOTED IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A COUPLE HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND/OR BECOMING UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING COLD
FRONT. HIGH SHEAR AND LOW BUOYANCY SITUATIONS LIKE THESE CAN OFTEN
BE QUITE CHALLENGING WITH A HIGH VARIANCE OF OUTCOMES. AT THIS
POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD AN INTRODUCTION OF LOW SVR PROBABILITIES.
ANY SVR THREATS THAT DO MATERIALIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED...BOTH
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

.RACY/GUYER.. 11/05/2007

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