DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261959
SWODY1
SPC AC 261956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL CAROLINAS...

..SYNOPSIS...
AS OF 18Z STRONG VORT MAX VICINITY BOOTHEEL MO WITH UPPER TROUGH SWD
INTO MS LIFTING RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS BY MID EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING 80PLUS KT 500MB WIND MAX ROTATES FROM CURRENT LOCATION
AL/MID TN TO ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z.

SURFACE LOW NEAR CVG AT 19Z WITH COLD FRONT SWD THRU ERN AL INTO
GULF S OF MOB. COASTAL FRONT HAS SHIFTED INLAND FROM SERN CORNER VA
TO CENTRAL SC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE FROM W OF AGS SWWD
INTO NERN GOM.

..MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WIND PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG AND AS MID LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES
BY THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING PARAMETER
FOR MORE THAN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT... WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO
500 J/KG AND LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WHERE NEAR 70F
DEWPOINTS ARE AVAILABLE.

CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY LINE MOVING NEWD
INTO SC EXPECTED TO SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE REMAINDER
OF AFTERNOON AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE LITTLE GREATER INSTABILITY.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS
MOVING RAPIDLY UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ALONG
INSTABILITY LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD INTO ERN NC DURING EVENING.

FURTHER S ALONG INSTABILITY LINE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IS
DECREASING AS UPPER SYSTEM AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SHIFT AWAY FROM
AREA ALONG WITH A SHRINKING AREA OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IN WARM
SECTOR.

HAVE ADDED THUNDER INTO ERN OH/TN VALLEYS WITH DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER VORT/UPPER TROUGH
AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

.HALES.. 11/26/2007

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