SWODY1
SPC AC 131959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2007
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY AREAS...
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH WRN TN AND NRN MS. THE
MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NRN MS INTO NRN AL NEXT FEW HOURS.
POCKET OF STEEPER 7C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -16C AT 500 MB
ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
FARTHER WEST...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER AR.
HOWEVER...MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION AND IS CONTRIBUTING
TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG WITH 5-5.5 C/KM 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF AR. HOWEVER...WARMING
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND GENERALLY
BELOW LAYERS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
DEVELOPMENT.
.DIAL.. 11/13/2007
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