SWODY1
SPC AC 190553
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2007
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ESEWD FROM THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COASTS INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
EVENTUALLY NRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH ERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING
EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. A N-S ORIENTED WARM
FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.
..PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
ABOVEMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITHIN POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. MOIST CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
FOR LIGHTNING GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR E AS ID/SWRN MT/WRN
WY...HOWEVER THE GREATEST AREAL TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXIST
ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WHERE THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PROMOTE
MORE VIGOROUS/DEEPER UPDRAFTS.
..DEEP S TX...
A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. BOTH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER
ISOLATED...DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE CAPPING.
..SRN GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY...
STRONG...LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING WEAKLY UNSTABLE
FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 850 MB. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITHIN ZONE
OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW...THOUGH A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
.MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/19/2007
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