SWODY1
SPC AC 230036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..TEXAS/LOUISIANA...
AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD WITHIN A
CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. IN A ZONE OF STRONGER
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM...ABOVE A DEEP COLD SURFACE RIDGE...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME
NEARLY SATURATED FROM AROUND 700 MB AND ABOVE...ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
WEAK COOLING ALOFT...CENTERED AROUND 500 MB...IS PROGGED TO
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTING TO
WEAK CAPE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...EXTENDING FROM JUST
BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT CHARGE SEPARATION/CLOUD ELECTRIFICATION...
WITHIN ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FOR SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD
12Z FRIDAY.
..FOUR CORNERS STATES...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IMPULSE...AND AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WITHIN AN EVOLVING TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
EXISTS IN A LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING...BEFORE NEW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO THE NORTHWEST...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. THIS IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 60+ KT 500
MB JET STREAK...WHICH IS PROGGED TO NOSE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA BY 06Z.
.KERR.. 11/23/2007
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