SWODY1
SPC AC 020052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU NOV 01 2007
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF
CONUS...INTERSPERSED WITH MOSTLY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES S OF ABOUT
40N. NRN STREAM IS DOMINATED BY TWO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS --
FIRST MOVING EWD ACROSS QUE AND SECOND AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ESEWD
ACROSS SASK...MT AND WY. AT SFC...CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG RIDGING SWWD ACROSS TX COAST
AND ERN MEX. THIS PATTERN WILL PRECLUDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND/OR
INSTABILITY FOR GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER GREAT MAJORITY OF CONUS
DURING REMAINDER PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE/LOW-PROBABILITY EXCEPTION OF
COASTAL FL.
..FL E COAST...
THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT MRGL THUNDER POTENTIAL AT BEST OVER
PORTIONS FL E COAST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS FCST...WITH ONLY SPORADIC/BRIEF PENETRATION OF
CONVECTION UPWARD INTO COLD LAYERS OF MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERE SUITABLE
FOR LIGHTNING GENERATION. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOMEWHAT GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL JUST OFFSHORE OVER GULF STREAM
WHERE MARINE THERMAL FLUXES MORE ROBUSTLY OFFSET POOR MID-UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SUPPORT OF DEEP BUOYANCY. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH HURRICANE NOEL WILL REMAIN FAR OFFSHORE IN KEEPING
WITH LATEST NHC FCSTS...SEE WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
.EDWARDS.. 11/02/2007
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