SWODY1
SPC AC 271621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2007
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER NRN NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS ACCOMPANIED
THIS COMPACT SYSTEM INVOF UPPER MI...AND A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER WITH LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG
THE NW LOWER MI SHORE. AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TODAY ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF LAKE
HURON...AND PERHAPS OVER LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA.
A LARGER SCALE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL PROGRESS
ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT. DESPITE RELATIVELY COLD
PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER THE 12Z UIL AND
SLE SOUNDINGS/...ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BECOME QUITE MARGINAL AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATES INLAND AWAY
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE.
MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL DRIFT
SEWD TODAY INTO TONIGHT. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY
MOIST PROFILES BELOW 700 MB...BUT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ONLY WEAK/SHALLOW ASCENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR S FL IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.
.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/27/2007
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