SWODY1
SPC AC 122001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST MON NOV 12 2007
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..MID MS THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF ASCENT AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM AND -14C 500 MB
TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE
STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY HAIL WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED AND SMALL.
..OK AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK INTO NRN AR BY EARLY EVENING AS THE CAP
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF
MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 MLCAPE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS OK
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 80. MORNING RAOB DATA
SHOWED 8C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...MID
LEVEL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY SUGGESTS LAPSE
RATES WILL DECREASE WITH TIME. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN
UNORGANIZED AND ANY HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SMALL.
.DIAL.. 11/12/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment