SWODY1
SPC AC 261238
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN SC INTO FAR SERN
VA...
..FL PANHANDLE COAST...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MAINTAINED SMALL BOW ECHO AND A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT ADVANCED EWD ACROSS
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. AIR MASS HAS STRUGGLED TO RECOVER AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY WITH 12Z MESOSCALE ANALYSES AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ONLY VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY INVOF THE COAST WEST OF
THE FL BEND REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND/BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING GIVEN STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR
SURFACE BASED MLCAPE GIVEN MODEST DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD END
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT EWD OVER THE NRN FL/SERN GA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.
..ERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SERN VA...
CAD WEDGE REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...WITH COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES
RIVER SSWWD INTO FAR ERN SC AT 12Z. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ACT TO ERODE ERN
PORTION OF CAD SUFFICIENTLY FOR MARGINAL SURFACE BASED CAPE LATER
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F. HOW FAR WEST
SUFFICIENT EROSION WILL OCCUR FOR SURFACE-BASED CAPE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ATTM. HOWEVER...APPEARS WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
LIFT WNWWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT BY LATER TODAY.
SCATTERED...MOSTLY ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW MORE
ROBUST STORMS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TAPPING RICHER ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LAPSE
RATES REMAIN WEAK AND RESULTANT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER
SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THREATS OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
BRIEF TORNADOES PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.
.EVANS/CROSBIE.. 11/26/2007
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