SWODY1
SPC AC 261625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST MON NOV 26 2007
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN NC AREA...
..SYNOPSIS...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER AR/MO THIS MORNING WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN
STREAM AND ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL ALSO DEVELOP
NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TO THE MIDDLE AND SE ATLANTIC COASTS
BY EARLY TUESDAY.
..NE GULF COAST TODAY...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BOOST
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM BAND...THE LARGER SCALE
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THIS AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED STORMS WITH BOW AND/OR SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE
SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW SEVERE STORM
PROBABILITIES.
..ERN NC AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...
A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING
AND EROSION OF THE RESIDUAL WEDGE E OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 5.5 C/KM. THE
RICHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE
DAY...THUS THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE APPROACH
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ACROSS ERN NC TONIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/26/2007
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