SWODY1
SPC AC 091924
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN GULF COAST INTO THE S CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CONTINUES. AND...WHILE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW INLAND IS
PRECLUDING A RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW AXIS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION IS NOW OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF
HOUSTON THROUGH NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AND...DEEPENING CONVECTION
HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
INHIBITION FOR MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE...A GENERALLY SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROBABLY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
UPDRAFTS MAY OCCASIONALLY PENETRATE THROUGH MIXED PHASE
LAYER...SUPPORTING CHARGE SEPARATION/CLOUD ELECTRIFICATION...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AS ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES INLAND AND WEAKENS WITHIN A
BROADER SCALE RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
..ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH PACIFIC
COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... ONSHORE
UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN WEST OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES...ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING
CONVECTION WITHIN A BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INLAND
TONIGHT. BUT...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING REMAINING WEST OF
COASTAL AREAS...GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING BEYOND HIGHLY
SPORADIC/ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
.KERR.. 11/09/2007
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