DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051258
SWODY1
SPC AC 051255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST MON NOV 05 2007

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
100 KT MID LVL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY WILL AMPLIFY SE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING E TO THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY EARLY TUESDAY.
ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS...
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATING SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND THE
OH/TN VLYS TODAY...REACHING THE NWRN GULF AND MID ATLANTIC CST BY
12Z TUESDAY.

..LWR TN AND OH VLYS...
CURRENT SFC AND VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW 30-40 KT WSWLY 925-850 MB
FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH. BENEATH THIS
LAYER...PERSISTENT RIDGING ALONG THE CNTRL GULF WILL LIMIT TRUE GULF
INFLOW. BUT SWLY NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL TAP MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S OVER SE TX AND THE NWRN GULF.
THIS SETUP SHOULD ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...WITH PWS AROUND .75 IN/ TO SPREAD NE
INTO AR AND THE LWR TN/OH VLYS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN SCTD TO BKN...SUPPORTING SEASONABLY STRONG LOW
LVL HEATING FROM WRN/NRN KY SW INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN. BUT MID LVL
LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAK...AROUND 6.5C/KM
ON S SIDE OF UPR JET. NEVERTHELESS...WITH AFTN HEATING EXPECT TSTMS
TO FORM ALONG AN/OR AHEAD OF FRONT AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO AOA 500
J/KG.

WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH NE EXTENT ACROSS THE OH VLY...WHERE
DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR WILL EXCEED 50 KTS. BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE CORRIDOR
WITH THE GREATEST OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/
SUPERCELLS SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN/WRN KY SW INTO NRN/WRN TN AND NE
AR...WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE NWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED. ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION...AND ORIENTATION OF FRONT
BENEATH DEEP NWLY SHEAR SUGGEST THAT UPDRAFTS COULD REMAIN ROOTED IN
THE WARM SECTOR FOR SOME TIME BEFORE BEING UNDERCUT BY SURGING COLD
AIR MASS.

HIGH SHEAR/LOW BUOYANCY SETUPS LIKE THIS CAN YIELD A WIDE RANGE OF
OUTCOMES DEPENDING UPON STORM SUSTENANCE AND EVOLUTION. WHILE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO SHORT BANDS
OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOWS AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND
..OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK FCST
ATTM.

.CORFIDI/GUYER.. 11/05/2007

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