SWODY1
SPC AC 141950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGIONS...
..LOWER MS THROUGH TN VALLEY REGIONS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN OH SWWD THROUGH NRN AR AND SWRN TX.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD AS CP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
PLAINS. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEYS IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S HAS ADVECTED THROUGH THE
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODEST
6-6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND AOB 500 J/KG
OVER THE TN VALLEY.
STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM SERN
MO...WRN KY AND PARTS OF TN WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION
ACCOMPANYING LEAD IMPULSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED NEAR
THE SURFACE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL AND SERN AR INTO NRN MS AND WRN
TN. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HEIGHTS
FALL...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY FROM 35 TO 40 KT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR. ANY REMAINING
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
.DIAL.. 11/14/2007
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