SWODY1
SPC AC 191556
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 AM CST MON NOV 19 2007
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. DOWNSTREAM...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS PROVIDING FOR A CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD TOWARDS SOUTH TX SUPPORTING SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.
..SOUTH TX...
AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MX WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD TODAY. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND SELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF NUEVO LEON AND COAHUILA...SHOULD SUPPORT SCT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN MX INTO DEEP SOUTH TX BY MID
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE 12Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS...A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD EXIST OVER SOUTH TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. DESPITE THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...GENERALLY WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW /10 KTS AT 500 MB
AND 35-40 KTS AT 300 MB/ SUGGESTS UN-ORGANIZED/PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS...PRECLUDING THE INCLUSION OF SVR PROBABILITIES.
..CENTRAL/ERN NC...
ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
SEABOARD...A SUBTLE MID LEVEL VORT CENTER HAS COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG ON THE 12Z
GSO SOUNDING/ TO PRODUCE A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EWD INTO ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
..WRN WA/NW ORE...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -30 DEG C/...APPROACHING UPPER VORT
CENTER AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LOW TOP
TSTMS OVER FAR NWRN ORE AND WRN WA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.CROSBIE/HALES.. 11/19/2007
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