SWODY2
SPC AC 090553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST THU NOV 08 2007
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
SHIFTS INTO SERN CANADA AND NRN ATLANTIC BASIN. WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM AS A NRN PAC TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PAC COAST. MEANWHILE...A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SWRN STATES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
..MID-MS RVR VLY...
A MODEST SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT OWING TO BOTH LEE TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE HIGHER
PLAINS AND THE DEPARTING ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ERN STATES UPR JET.
MODIFIED CP AIR MASS ALREADY OBSERVED IN PWAT LOOPS ACROSS THE WRN
GULF BASIN WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY INTO THE MID-MS RVR VLY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
EXIST. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM SRN IA...NRN MO EWD INTO WCNTRL IL. SVR WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY
GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
..UPR TX COAST NWD INTO WRN LA AND SRN AR...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WRN-SIDE OF THE ERN CONUS
ANTICYCLONE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM
LAYER WILL EXIST IN THE H6-H4 LAYER THAT MAY PROHIBIT STRONGER
UPDRAFTS NEEDED FOR CHARGE-SEPARATION. THUS...A GENERAL TSTM OTLK
IS NOT WARRANTED.
.RACY.. 11/09/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment