SWODY2
SPC AC 120548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A ROBUST UPR JET OVER THE N PAC BASIN WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY
EWD...REACHING THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH SRN CA WILL CLOSE-OFF
INTO A LOW AND THEN RETROGRADE OFF THE BAJA COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE...NRN PORTIONS OF THIS SAME WAVE ENTRENCHED IN
THE NRN BRANCH WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND SERN
STATES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SERN STATES AND THE NRN GULF BASIN...LIMITING THE RETURN OF
QUALITY GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NWD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE N
PAC JET WILL REACH A GRTLKS...MIDWEST...SRN PLAINS LINE BY 12Z WED.
AN AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR 60 DEG SFC DEW
POINTS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED FROM PARTS OF TX NEWD INTO THE LWR
OH VLY TODAY AND TUESDAY. ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL PROBABLY BE
ONGOING WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND ALONG THE NOSE OF A WSWLY LLJ
IN THE MO/AR OZARKS EARLY TUESDAY. THESE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/MOVE
ESEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VLY TUESDAY AFTN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MIGRATES SEWD TOWARD THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SFC BASED AS THE SFC WARMS ACROSS
PARTS OF W KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND NWRN MS DURING THE AFTN.
BUT...ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EVIDENCE OF A WARM
NOSE JUST BELOW H5 WILL LIMIT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THUS...NO SVR
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...BANDS OF STREAMER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SPORADIC
TSTMS ALONG THE UPR TX COAST NWD INTO THE AR OZARKS WHERE SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS.
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SVR
STORMS.
.RACY.. 11/12/2007
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