SWODY2
SPC AC 141704
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST WED NOV 14 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ERN
STATES...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING PORTIONS
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH FL DURING THE DAY. CP
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN STATES IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER WEST...CUTOFF UPPER
LOW NEAR BAJA IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO NWRN MEXICO
APPROACHING SRN AZ AND SWRN NM.
..ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF FORCED
ASCENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN
CAROLINAS NWD INTO THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...SWLY LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL RESULT IN THE PRIMARY MOIST AXIS REMAINING
OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE CONVECTION WILL EXIST WITHIN
STRONG VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES...BUT VERY MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ROBUST...ORGANIZED STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AS THE ZONE OF ASCENT INTERCEPTS THE MOIST
AXIS. A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE.
..SRN AZ THROUGH EXTREME SWRN NM...
VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF SRN
AZ...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SWRN NM IN PROXIMITY TO THERMAL TROUGH
ATTENDING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NEWD. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...ASCENT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER SHOULD INCREASE OVER PARTS OF SRN AZ INTO
SWRN NM AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NEWD. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 400 MB
WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. A FEW HIGH BASED...ELEVATED
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS REGION.
.DIAL.. 11/14/2007
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