SWODY2
SPC AC 270510
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THREE
PERIOD...FEATURING STRONG UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE
NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO LEAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO ERN ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MORE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY.
..SRN FL PENINSULA...
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER WITH TIME OVER THE
FL PENINSULA...SUPPORTING THE NWD ADVECTION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE POOR AND THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MLCAPES TO 100-300 J/KG. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 500 MB. STILL...SOME OF THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS MAY GROW DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
DEVELOPMENT...NAMELY ALONG THE COAST OF THE SERN PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH COLD UPPER TROUGH. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL AND
NO THUNDER AREA WILL BE DELINEATED.
.MEAD.. 11/27/2007
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