DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190731
SWODY3
SPC AC 190730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CST MON NOV 19 2007

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD WILL MAKE STEADY SEWD
PROGRESS CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. WHILE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF A SECONDARY WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT LATE...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SSWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..SABINE/LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS EWD TO WRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL...
MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION /GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/
IS FORECAST FROM E TX ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AS MODEST HEATING OF SEASONABLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS FRONT APPROACHES THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE -- FROM THE TN AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS TO SERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SEWD...REACHING WRN GA AND THE ERN FL PANHANDLE LATE.

STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NW OF THE
FRONT...WHICH COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW CLOUD BASES
AND MODEL FORECASTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KT WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR COULD SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADOES. WITH LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WILL INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY
THIS FORECAST.

.GOSS.. 11/19/2007

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