SWODY3
SPC AC 290700
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
LOWER CO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE TRACK
OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP THIS FEATURE NEWD
FROM CO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE AS
THE NAM AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LOW OVER THE LOWER MO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
INTO SRN PLAINS.
INTENSE...LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS ARE FORECAST
INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS PRIOR TO DEVELOPING INTO THE MIDWEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG LLJ WHICH WILL MIGRATE NEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE CNTRL LOW PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
WHERE MOISTENING ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH ERN FRINGE OF
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.MEAD.. 11/29/2007
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