SWOD48
SPC AC 090946
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
..UPR FLOW REGIME PREDICTABILITY BECOMES POOR NEXT WEEK...
..DISCUSSION...
UPR FLOW REGIME BECOMES UNPREDICTABLE BY NEXT WEEK WITH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE QUITE VARIED. SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS ARE...HOWEVER...
CLEARER AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH
THE NRN MEXICO/SWRN U.S. UPR WAVE. RECENT CP AIR MASS INTRUSION
OVER THE ENTIRE WRN GULF BASIN AND CONTINUED ELY FLOW EMANATING FROM
THE ERN STATES HIGH...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE. IN FACT...SOME MEMBERS OF
THE NCEP-GEFS SUGGEST CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WELL OFFSHORE IN THE
WRN GULF WATERS IN THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD RELEGATE
MOST OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OFFSHORE. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY...A MEDIUM RANGE SVR OTLK IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.
.RACY.. 11/09/2007
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