SWOD48
SPC AC 120929
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST MON NOV 12 2007
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG UPR TROUGH THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
AROUND MID-WEEK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO SERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
IN ITS WAKE...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE
MORE-OR-LESS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE LWR 48 AS A PARADE OF NRN STREAM
IMPULSES DIG SEWD WITHIN FAST WNWLY FLOW.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AT EJECTING THE BAJA UPR
LOW EWD AND PHASING IT WITH THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF
STATES FROM FRI 16 NOV INTO THE WEEKEND /00Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER
WITH THIS PROCESS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX EWD INTO THE DEEP S. PRIMARY
NEGATIVE FOR ROBUST STORMS AND POSSIBLE SVR WEATHER WILL BE THE POOR
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE WELL S
INTO THE GULF BASIN PRIOR TO THE MEXICAN SYSTEM.
.RACY.. 11/12/2007
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