SWOD48
SPC AC 190854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CST MON NOV 19 2007
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
..DISCUSSION...
WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 8...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION/EVOLUTION OF THE SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER MEAN FEATURE.
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DAY 4
/THANKSGIVING DAY -- THU. NOV. 22/ FROM NRN FL ACROSS GA AND PERHAPS
NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO DAY 5 ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BOTH REMAIN LIMITED...THUS
PRECLUDING THE INITIATION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.
LATER IN THE PERIOD -- AROUND DAY 6 /SAT. NOV. 24/ -- THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT A WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE SERN CONUS. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER N WITH
THIS FEATURE...SHIFTING IT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR ACROSS GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES A WEAKER LOW ACROSS NRN
FL. A STRONGER/MORE NLY LOW TRACK -- AND THUS A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARM SECTOR -- COULD RESULT IN SOME SEVERE THREAT DAY 6...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM.
BEYOND DAY 6...MODEL DIVERGE MORE DRASTICALLY...MAKING ANY FORECAST
OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
.GOSS.. 11/19/2007
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