SWOD48
SPC AC 270830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2007
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON DAY 4 /FRI NOV
30TH/ WILL PHASE WITH CUT-OFF LOW OFF BAJA CA WITH SYSTEM EJECTING
EWD IN PIECES INTO THE PLAINS ON DAYS 5 AND 6 /SAT AND SUN DEC 1ST
AND 2ND/. THEREAFTER...LARGER-SCALE TROUGH FORMATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR OVER ERN N AMERICA. A RATHER WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THIS
FEATURE DEVELOPING FROM THE CNTRL OR SRN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES OR NERN STATES BY MONDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
AND GULF COAST STATES.
WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN LOW PLAINS
INTO GULF COAST STATES AND MID SOUTH...BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE
MARGINAL AHEAD OF FRONT. THEREFORE...NO REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
AREA WILL BE DELINEATED ATTM.
.MEAD.. 11/27/2007
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