SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122202
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CST MON NOV 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...FAR SERN KS AND NERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122202Z - 130030Z
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LEAD TO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS MO AND
AR...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL WARMING IN ITS WAKE. 18Z LMN SOUNDING
SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WITH WARMING
NOTED ABOVE 500 MB. GIVEN WARM SECTOR CAPPING...STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND JUST N OF COLD FRONT WHERE LIFT WILL LOCALLY
OVERCOME CAP. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WITH EWD
EXTENT...THUS...A STORM OR TWO COULD YIELD SMALL HAIL OVER SWRN MO
ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR LONG LIVED NOR SEVERE STORMS.
.JEWELL.. 11/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
38249257 38119206 37489182 36989266 36339554 36639577
36989549 37629482 38009390 38209309
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