MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2168

ACUS11 KWNS 270346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270346
MEZ000-270615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CST MON NOV 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 270346Z - 270615Z

HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE.

REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. AND...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN THE PROCESS
OF INTENSIFYING ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM IS ALREADY IN EXCESS
OF 50 KT...AND THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 70 KT BY 06Z...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION THROUGH A DEEP
LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYER.

WHILE A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN...OR
WARM...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MUCH OF NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK/PENOBSCOT/PISCATAQUIS/AND SOMERSET COUNTIES OF MAINE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THIS AREA IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING AS THE AIR MASS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED. AND...AS LIFT BECOMES MAXIMIZED BY
06Z...INCLUDING THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR
DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
BY 05-06Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 09-10Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME.

.KERR.. 11/27/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...

47336977 47436851 47006766 46406783 46136923 46087021
46417057

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