SWODY1
SPC AC 011301
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST SAT DEC 01 2007
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER-MAKER THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. TWO AREAS WILL HAVE SOME THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY TROUGH...WHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A
SEPARATE SMALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA.
..FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN TROUGH AXIS NOW OVER WESTERN AZ.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY PROVIDING STRONG LARGE SCALE
UPWARD FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF AZ/UT/CO/NM. MORNING LIGHTNING DATA
SUGGESTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NM.
THESE STORMS MAY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MTNS OF NORTHERN NM/SOUTHERN CO.
OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTHWEST AS
MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THESE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PLUME OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF TX/OK/KS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
EXIST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT. OTHERWISE...STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT LATER TONIGHT MAY HELP
INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX INTO EASTERN KS. THREAT
WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN IL/EASTERN IA BY 02/12Z.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER TROUGHS IS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OFF THE COAST OF WA/ORE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST AFTER DARK TONIGHT...WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING COASTAL AREAS.
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.HART.. 12/01/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment