SWODY1
SPC AC 091224
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CST SUN DEC 09 2007
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FAR WEST/RCKYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...BETWEEN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE E PACIFIC AND
FLATTER BUT DOMINANT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ERN GULF/WRN ATLANTIC.
IMPULSE ON E SIDE OF SPLIT...NOW OVER ERN CO...SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN
AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE N CNTRL
STATES. IN THE WAKE OF CO DISTURBANCE...EXPECT HEIGHTS TO REBOUND
SLIGHTLY OVER THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY AS UPR LOW NOW OFF THE SRN CST
CONTINUES SE TO NRN BAJA CA.
DESPITE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...EXPECTED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF CNTRL PLNS
SFC ANTICYCLONE BENEATH CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE MID MS VLY SUGGESTS
THAT SHALLOW COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LWR OH VLY TO THE SRN
PLNS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY S/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..S CNTRL TX TO LWR MS VLY...
WARM SECTOR SE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SRN/ERN TX NE INTO AR/TN
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH PW AOA 1.25 INCHES AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM TO NEAR RECORD LVLS AGAIN TODAY...RESULTING IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. BUT...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LVL
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL...AND WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES/
MLCAPE.
A FEW SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXES BY MID-AFTN FROM E CNTRL TX NE
INTO NW LA AND SRN/ERN AR. A BIT LATER...STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG
OR JUST N OF FRONT IN S CNTRL TX. 30+ KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO INDEED DEVELOP. BUT WEAK LOW
TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
ARGUE AGAINST WIDESPREAD SVR. STORMS IN S CNTRL TX AND NEAR THE TX
BIG BEND COULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
..SRN KS/OK INTO OH VLY...
BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS NOW EXTENDING FROM OK/SRN KS ENE INTO THE
MID MS/LWR OH VLYS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED SWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED
WITH CO IMPULSE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY E/ENE INTO
IND/OH AND NRN WV LATER TODAY AS LLJ VEERS WITH CONTINUED
EJECTION/SHEARING OF UPR SYSTEM. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE BEYOND REGION OF GREATEST ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN.
BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED
LINEAR/BACK-BUILDING CONVECTIVE MODE COULD YIELD A FEW CORRIDORS OF
FREEZING RAIN AS ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS NEAR THE SFC /REF MCD 2192/.
..EXTREME SRN CA/SW AZ...
SPEED MAX NOW MOVING S OFF THE SRN CA CST EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE UPR
LOW NOW NEAR SAN DIEGO S/SE TO OFF THE NRN BAJA CST BY LATE IN THE
DAY. WITH COLDEST AIR ALOFT LIKELY REMAINING OFF THE SRN CA CST AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR NOW IN PLACE AT THE SFC...THUNDER THREAT OVER
INLAND AREAS OF EXTREME SRN CA/SW AZ APPEARS MINIMAL.
NEVERTHELESS...SFC HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT MAY YIELD ISOLD
STRIKES OVER REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
.CORFIDI.. 12/09/2007
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