SWODY1
SPC AC 141251
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2007
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SE AZ WILL EJECT ENEWD AND
LOSE AMPLITUDE TODAY WHILE A SECOND WAVE OVER UT DIGS
SEWD...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NM/W TX OVERNIGHT. ONLY WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITHIN THE RESIDUAL CP AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NM. THE
PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS E
TX...ALONG A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE TO ABOUT 75 MI OFF THE TX COAST.
LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT RETREATS TO THE NW IN ADVANCE OF
THE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND AS A 40-50 KT LLJ BECOMES
ESTABLISHED FROM E TX INTO AR. EXPECT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM E TX INTO AR. INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN...THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED /BASED NEAR 850 MB/ AND RELATIVELY WEAK
OWING TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA IN TX...WHERE
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-750 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF OLGA WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL/S FL TODAY...ALONG AND S OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
.THOMPSON.. 12/14/2007
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