SWODY1
SPC AC 241942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST MON DEC 24 2007
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS ACROSS CONUS ON LARGE SCALE...WITH
MAJOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOCATED OVER INLAND PACIFIC NW AND
OVER SRN PLAINS ATTM. AS FORMER PERTURBATION DIGS SEWD TO NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...LATTER WILL PIVOT EWD ACROSS TX GULF
COAST AND LA OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF STG MIDLEVEL DPVA AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTENING AHEAD OF LEADING TROUGH MAY AID DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE SFC LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN GULF
BUT PERHAPS EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN LA AND COASTAL MS/AL
REGION. PRIND MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WAIT UNTIL DAY-2
PERIOD...AND BUOYANCY WILL BE TOO SMALL/SHALLOW TO SUPPORT INLAND
LIGHTNING BEFORE 25/12Z.
STG LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL CAPPING...AS OBSERVED IN 12Z RAOBS...SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FL...PRECLUDING DEEP
CONVECTION. BY CONTRAST...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF NWRN CONUS TROUGH...AND
VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. HOWEVER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL RENDER POTENTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION OF
THUNDER TOO MEAGER FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS
SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS.
.EDWARDS.. 12/24/2007
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