SWODY1
SPC AC 261951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST WED DEC 26 2007
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY THROUGH LARGER/MEAN TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS. FIRST
OF THESE -- CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD FROM NC -- WILL MOVE OUT OVER
OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED/ELEVATED WARM
CONVEYOR ABOVE SFC...AND ACCOMPANYING TSTM POTENTIAL...WILL SHIFT
FARTHER OFFSHORE. NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER ARKLATEX REGION.. THIS
TROUGH WILL PIVOT NEWD...DEAMPLIFY...AND CROSS LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
BEFORE 27/06Z. THIRD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS SERIES IS DIGGING
SEWD ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NW AND WRN GREAT BASIN REGION
ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD 4-CORNERS
REGION OVERNIGHT.
AT SFC...DIFFUSE LOW WAS ANALYZED AT 19Z BEHIND CONVECTIVE BAND OVER
CENTRAL LA...WITH COLD FRONT SWD THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN GULF. THIS
LOW SHOULD MIGRATE GENERALLY EWD OR ENEWD OVER MS AND REMAIN
ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED...GIVEN DISRUPTION TO ISOBARIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECURSORY TSTM BAND. COLD
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD OVER NWRN GULF...LA AND
MS...REACHING WRN FL PANHANDLE BY ABOUT 27/12Z.
..WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
ORGANIZED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION -- INCLUDING SOME STG TSTMS WITH
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS ALOFT -- CONTINUES TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS LA WHILE EMBEDDED ELEMENTS MOVE NEWD. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT TO REACH SFC -- WITH VERY MRGL/CONDITIONAL
TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WILL BE NEAR LA COAST BETWEEN ARA AND MOUTH OF
MS RIVER. SFC ANALYSES AND LOW CLOUD TRENDS IN VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST
RICHEST RETURN-FLOW LAYER ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT IS AT LEAST 50
NM OFFSHORE...AND DIAGNOSTIC TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAY REMAIN TRUE
WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF IMMEDIATE COASTAL PARISHES INVOF HUM.
PRIND EWD PACE OF CONVECTIVE BAND AND OF COLD FROPA WILL NOT PERMIT
MOST BUOYANT HIGH-THETAE SFC AIR MASS TO MOVE INLAND
APPRECIABLY...IF AT ALL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS...WITH STG-SVR GUST
POTENTIAL AT SFC INCREASING SWD FROM COAST ACROSS CONTINENTAL SHELF
WATERS.
.EDWARDS.. 12/26/2007
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