SWODY1
SPC AC 310537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SUN DEC 30 2007
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TODAY AS A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE NERN
PACIFIC...APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST EARLY DAY 2 PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NORTH
AMERICA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO
THE EAST COAST. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD
ACROSS THE NERN STATES TO CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES EWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT.
..CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE BOUNDARY RESIDING OVER NRN FL AT 12Z TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SWD AND STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.
A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL
SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY S OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AS THIS SURFACE FEATURE MOVES SWD TODAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WOULD
SUGGEST THAT UPDRAFT INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.
..OH VALLEY...
A STRONG SPEED MAX ATTENDANT TO CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG TRACK OF ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW/SHARP FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING
TO WRN PA LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE COLD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN QUITE SPARSE...DUE MOSTLY TO
SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
.PETERS.. 12/31/2007
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