SWODY1
SPC AC 301544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007
VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FROM
SRN GA TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
..SE STATES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD TO
THE TN VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND MID ATLANTIC BY LATE TONIGHT. PRECEDING THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO
CENTRAL GA/SC AND SRN NC. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL GA THIS
MORNING TO NE NC BY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN A BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL GA WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE. DESPITE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MIXING...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED
RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE POOR
LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...WITH
MUCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 500-1000 J/KG. WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG THE BOUNDARY /IN THE PATH OF THE SURFACE WAVE/.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY LONG/STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES
AND/OR SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE MOIST
PROFILES AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IMMEDIATELY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.THOMPSON.. 12/30/2007
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