SWODY1
SPC AC 301959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SUN DEC 30 2007
VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN GA...ERN SC...SERN
NC...
..SRN GA/ERN SC/SE NC...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING NEWD ACROSS ERN AL...GA INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. AT
THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM ERN SC EXTENDING WSWWD
INTO SCNTRL GA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO SW GA. A LINE OF
TRAINING CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE AXIS OF A SFC TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO FAR SERN SC. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS A NARROW WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...A 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER SRN AL AND CNTRL GA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD END BY EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL GA AND DURING THE MID EVENING ACROSS
ERN SC.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE LATEST REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SLOWLY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD
ACROSS SERN GA AND SC. WIND DAMAGE WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
.BROYLES.. 12/30/2007
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