SWODY1
SPC AC 311947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
.CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK FEED OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
WRN CARIBBEAN/ERN GULF NEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING WILL ENCOUNTER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT.
..OH VALLEY...
AT EARLY AFTERNOON...WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT WAS LOCATED IN ERN MO/WRN IL...IS FORECAST
TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM FROM WEST CENTRAL
IL INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT...PW VALUES AROUND 1/2 INCH...INTENSE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR
A TSTM OUTLOOK AREA.
.IMY.. 12/31/2007
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