SWODY1
SPC AC 121559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CST WED DEC 12 2007
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THIS PERIOD AS SW U.S. TROUGH
PARTIALLY PHASES WITH CNTRL PLNS IMPULSE...YIELDING A POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH THAT PROGRESSES E TO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. FARTHER NW...A
SERIES OF NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE ESE IN FAST FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK TO MT/ND.
AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SW TO
CSTL TX SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY SE AHEAD PHASING UPR SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPR TROUGH LIKELY WILL INDUCE WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE LWR TN VLY. THIS WAVE
SHOULD REACH NE TN OR SE KY BY 12Z THURSDAY.
..TX TO THE LWR TN VLY...
AN ANA-TYPE FRONTAL SITUATION HAS EVOLVED FROM SE TX INTO THE LWR MS
VLY AS SHALLOW COLD DOME CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT WRN EXTENSION OF
BROAD WRN ATLANTIC UPR RIDGE. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN AREA OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SWRN TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY
E/NE INTO NE TX/SE OK AND PERHAPS WRN AR BY LATE TODAY. STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS DEEP
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS WRN EDGE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AXIS/EML NEAR PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED SFC WAVE. OTHER
SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEARER THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN WAKE OF SWD MOVING SURFACE
FRONT.
.EVANS/CORFIDI.. 12/12/2007
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