SWODY1
SPC AC 301223
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2007
VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE SOUTHEAST...
..SOUTHEAST...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY NOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
SECOND...STRONG IMPULSE DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND
REDEVELOPS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
SURFACE FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE E-CENTRAL NC COAST ROUGHLY SWWD
INTO CENTRAL GA AND INTO THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE AT 12Z...WITH WEAK
LOWS EVIDENT NEAR CSG AND PNS. EXPECT SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED DURING THE MORNING OVER THIS REGION AND THEN TRACK
QUICKLY ENEWD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT INTO SERN NC BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW TRACK WILL INCREASE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD STEADILY INLAND
TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EVIDENT JUST OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH AXIS OF MID 60F DEW POINTS
EXTENDING INTO SERN NC.
ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED ATOP SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MODEST
DIURNAL HEATING...CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED MOISTENING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS SHALLOW INVERSION AND ALLOW STORMS TO ROOT
NEAR THE SURFACE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. AXIS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MLCAPE FROM 500-750 J/KG ACROSS FL PANHANDLE/SRN
GA...DEVELOPING INTO ERN SC/SERN NC LATER TODAY. BOTH OBSERVED AND
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AS
SURFACE-BASED POTENTIAL INCREASES TODAY...SO TOO WILL THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH ELEVATED SUPERCELLS GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.
.EVANS.. 12/30/2007
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